A quick ramble that has no evidence supporting it.
You have been warned.
Last week I mentioned an epic drop from a Sansha War Supply Complex in Providence. This site appeared on a regular basis and could be completed solo if you had all the time in the world and your space was safe. Providence didn’t provide that comfort when I was there, so I always called up a few corp mates to help out.
The first time I completed the site a Centum item dropped which was very satisfying. The second, third and fourth time I got nothing.
I believe that sometimes Eve needs to cool down.
By that I mean that the game needs to think you are not interested, you have to give it a break and come back to it. It is a phenomena which I believe has bearing on everything in the game. An anti-farming RNG that kicks in to stop people grinding an anomaly, mission, ship or thing that is massively profitable.
Where did I come up with this insane idea?
I was heavily into Exhumer production before industry was changed in 2014 with the Phoebe expansion. Back then the expected percentage of a successful outcome was well documented and the formula provided. Add the base ship, a juicy decryptor and hope for the best. More than not the outcome was disappointing but every time I had took a break from invention and came back to it, a few weeks later, my successful attempts increased dramatically.
I wasn’t trying to compete with a protected market. I was trying to play the margins and make a profit. A difficult proposition made harder by the insanity of the T2 Blue Print Original lottery that CCP had only recently stopped. Getting a successful invention and doing that consistently was the goal. Ultimately the more BPC’s I could generate the more profit I made. So like all good industrialists I started a spreadsheet to track success percentages and see if they were even close to the formula.
Two things happened. If I conducted invention on 30 items over 30 days I got about 7 returns. If I conducted the same inventions over 40 days (a week off in the middle) I got 12 returns. This result paid out consistently up until the Phoebe expansion which destroyed invention for the little guy.
So back to the Centum drop.
I figured that CCP hated the same people getting the same stuff so when I scanned down a War Complex I let team mates kill the final overseer (all shots by the one player and kill) then loot and a Centum A Type Adaptive Nano Membrane dropped every time.
I know that chance is a science in itself. I know that statistical probability means we were just lucky, but deep down I still think the game has a built in RNG factor.
Also believe that Burner Missions are the same. If you have a look at the dates I have slowed down considerably. I am doing other stuff and having a break in the belief that the offers of Burner Missions will increase and the drops will be better.
From a gambling perspective it pays to pay the client up front and early so that they blow their hard earned cash trying to replicate the win.
Eve is the same.
Fly Safe as Always,